14 December 2011

Paging Dr. Sowell


Researchers with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that investors who used low-down-payment, subprime credit to purchase multiple residential properties helped inflate home prices and are largely to blame for the recession. The researchers said their findings focused on an “undocumented” dimension of the housing market crisis that had been previously overlooked as officials focused on how to contain the financial crisis, not what caused it.
More than a third of all U.S. home mortgages granted in 2006 went to people who already owned at least one house, according to the report. In Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, where average home prices more than doubled from 2000 to 2006, investors made up nearly half of all mortgage-backed purchases during the housing bubble. Buyers owning three or more properties represented the fastest-growing segment of homeowners during that time.
“This may have allowed the bubble to inflate further, which caused millions of owner-occupants to pay more if they wanted to buy a home for their family,” the researchers noted.
Investors defaulted in large numbers after home values began to drop in 2006. They accounted for more than 25 percent of seriously delinquent mortgage balances nationwide, and more than a third in Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada from 2007 to 2009.

Sweet Keynes but the banksters just do not have a clue.  Somehow, the FRB of New York has come to the hilarious conclusion that somehow, mysteriously, those who “flip” houses are the root cause of the recession.  Talk about clueless.

The question that the NY FRB is apparently too stupid to ask is:  Why would some people suddenly decide to “flip” houses?  Answer:  because it’s generally profitable due to the increased demand for houses as a result of a)artificially low interest rates from The Fed, b) massive fraud among the banks in regards to loan application, c) the Federal Government’s willingness to subsidize market  risk, and thus eliminate moral hazard, through the agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and d) the general tendency of the government to encourage and subsidize home ownership through, among other things, federal income tax breaks.  Basically, the government as at the root of most of the problem here, and the Federal Reserve played a major role.

Of course, the FRB is not going to admit to wrongdoing, particularly since greedy businessmen make for a more compelling villain in this narrative.  But blaming people for responding to incentives at the margin, as clearly happened in this case, is indicative of just how worthless mainstream macroeconomic analysis clearly is.  Quite simply, it takes an astonishing amount of either dishonesty or short-sightedness to come to the conclusion that greedy businessmen are to blame for the current recession instead of the incentive system in which they operated.

The shallowness of this analysis, if honest, is simply evidence that those who are currently in charge are simply too stupid to merit the power with which they’ve been entrusted.  If, on the other hand, they are liars, the case for their removal from power is not in any way diminished.  In sum, there is no excuse for those presumed to be intelligent, and thus deserving of power, to be offering analysis this putridly vapid; they must be summarily dismissed and the system must be dispatched with.

* Cf. Dr. Sowell's book Applied Economics.

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