07 November 2012

Called It

It looks like it is safe to say that Obama will be reelected. At the time of this writing, Politico has called all but four states, and the current results show Obama winning by a comfortable margin, even though Florida and Virginia have not yet been called. Incidentally, Ohio has been called for Obama, but his victory is more or less secure even if this call is reversed later.

As a happy reminder, here is my election prediction from December 28th of last year:
6. Obama will be reelected. Obama has comfortably shifted into a do-nothing president, so he hasn’t done anything recently to piss anyone off (except possibly the signing into law the recent NDAA legislation). The negative effects of ObamaCare won’t kick in until 2013, assuming the Supreme Court doesn’t rule it unconstitutional. The army is finally clearing out of Iraq. Osama is dead. The Fed is taking some of the heat for the current economic mess. And, if Obama goes to war with Iran, he will effectively own that issue.

Furthermore, the Republican field is a mess. No one likes Romney, except for his wife and the GOP bosses. Gingrich is a joke that everyone laughs at. Bachmann is Palin lite, except for the rabid support base. Huntsman and the other 3-percenters (now there’s a band name) have no shot. As for Ron Paul, I don’t see how he will win. The media has become its smear campaign and the GOP bosses are hanging him out to dry. He’s more polarizing than Obama, and has no eloquence. An Obama-Paul presidential race would probably lead to one of the lowest turnouts in history, and Obama would win by virtue of having the Chicago machine backing him.
Yep, I called it. When the results are finalized, I’ll take a look at how they compare to Nate Silver’s model. By my current estimate, I think we can confidently say that he has correctly called at least 31 states. We’ll know tomorrow if he correctly called all 50, plus D.C. I’ll have other things to say about the election throughout the rest of the week, but for now I’m simply going to bask in my prediction. Maybe getting this one right will help to make me feel better about getting QE3 wrong.

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