22 March 2015

A Sign Of Things To Come

If you were watching the news last year, it was hard to escape the impression the world was falling apart. Now the data is in. And yes, it turns out the world’s most violent conflicts got a lot bloodier in 2014 — almost 30 percent bloodier, in fact. 
According to an analysis of data from the world’s 20 most lethal wars last year, at least 163,000 people died in conflict. That compares to just under 127,000 in the 20 worst wars the previous year, a rise of 28.7 percent. 
That’s a pretty disturbing spike by anyone’s terms. And if you look at the first few months of 2015, the violence doesn’t seem to be waning. 
What’s even more worrying is that this seems to be part of an ongoing trend that now goes back eight years. According to the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), global violence — as defined by a range of measures from conflict deaths, to displaced persons, to homicide rates — has been rising since 2007. 
This news is in many ways surprising because up to 2007, the data suggested the world was becoming a much safer place. 
According to the IEP, global violence had been broadly subsiding since the end of World War Two. Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker traces it back even further. Since the dawn of prehistory, Pinker’s research suggests, mankind has been becoming less violent.
I believe what we are witnessing is post-peak diversity.  Since it is axiomatic that people like being around people who are similar, it should come as no surprise that diversity has its limits.  To put it simply, there is a limit to how much differentness people are willing to tolerate.  We've gone past the limit.

The solution to this problem is segregation mediated by trade.  Let each culture/ethnicity have its own place and its own order, and let various ethnicities/cultures engage in trade with one another.  Segregation will help to avoid the conflicts arising from the friction of daily interaction with "the others," and trade relations help to ameliorate the desire for "the others" abroad, as doing so will lead to some degree of impoverishment.

Trying to encourage or force a coalition of different ethnic groups to live in close proximity to each other is recipe for violence.  Trying to use force in lieu of trade is also a great way to build distrust and breed violence.  Given the US foreign and domestic policy is, to use Steve Sailer's phrase, "invade the world, invite the world," it should not be at all surprising that the world is becoming more violent.  And it shouldn't be surprising if this trend continues for quite some time.

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